Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Forecasted winds and new snow will keep the avalanche hazard in the Alpine and at Treeline elevated over the next few days.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A size 2.5 natural avalanche was observed off the north face of Mt. Kitchener on Thursday, Jan 5. Unable to identify the type of avalanche or failure plane due to visibility.
Snowpack Summary
A few centimeters of new snow around the icefields is now covering a widespread layer of surface hoar and a rain crust up to 1900m. Moderate to strong SW winds are also ongoing, and forming new wind slabs in lee features. The Dec 17th persistent weak layer is down 20-40cm in sheltered areas and remains a major concern, especially in wind loaded areas where thicker slabs are present. This all sits on the weak facets and depth hoar that make up the bottom half of the snowpack.
Click here to learn more about these tricky conditions.
Weather Summary
Saturday
Cloudy with scattered flurries.
Accumulation: 4 cm.
Alpine temperature: High -4 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 15-30 km/h.
Freezing level: 1600 metres.
Sunday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C, High -6 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 10-20 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Monday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -13 °C, High -8 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 10-30 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
This problem will continue to grow with forecasted winds and snow. It could also easily trigger the persistent and deep persistent avalanche problems below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
A varied slab sits over the December 17th facet layer. This problem is most significant in open tree line features and in the alpine where you can expect a stiffer, likely more reactive slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Avalanches initiating in the upper snowpack are likely to step down to this layer and gain significant mass.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3