Avalanche Forecast
Regions: North Shore, Sasquatch, Sky Pilot, South Coast, Tetrahedron.
Take a big step back from avalanche terrain. Saturday night's storm will bring 30-50 cm of new snow that is expected to bond poorly to the underlying surface. Touchy storm slab or dry loose avalanches will be widespread.
Don't let good visibility and the desire to ride deep powder lure you into consequential terrain. Choose sheltered, low-angled or heavily forested slopes with no overhead hazard.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Earlier in the week, northerly outflow winds created small (size 1) but reactive wind slabs at ridge crests.
Looking forward to Sunday, an abnormally cold and dry storm will deposit 30-50 cm overnight on Saturday and create dangerous avalanche conditions. This new snow is expected to bond poorly to the weak underlying surface. Reactive storm slab and dry loose avalanches may be widespread. Riders are advised to take a cautious approach and stick to lower angle and low-consequence terrain free of overhead hazards. Avoid avalanche terrain if you see signs of instability like cracking, whumpfing, hollow drum-like sounds, or recent avalanche activity.
Check out Friday's North Shore Snowpack Update for a picture of the unusual snowpack setup leading into Sunday's storm.
Snowpack Summary
Saturday night's storm will accumulate 30-50 cm of new snow down to valley bottom. This new snow is expected to bond poorly to the underlying surface formed by recent wind and cold temperatures. This surface consists of weak faceted snow, old hard wind slabs and a breakable crust between 1100 and 1600 m.
The mid and lower snowpack is well-settled, strong, and consolidated.
Snowpack depths are reaching 250 cm at treeline.
Weather Summary
Saturday night
Heavy snowfall, 30-40 cm of new snow accumulation expected by the morning. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -6 °C. Ridge wind southeast 20-50 km/h. Freezing level 200 meters.
Sunday
Snowfall tapering in the morning, an additional 5-15 cm of accumulation is expected. A mix of sun and cloud throughout the day. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. Ridge wind west 20 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Freezing level 300 meters.
Monday
A mix of sun and cloud with flurries, 5-10 cm of new snow accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Light ridge wind from the southeast. Freezing level 900 meters.
Tuesday
Cloudy with sunny periods and flurries, up to 5 cm accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -4 °C. Ridge wind northwest 10-30 km/h. Freezing level 600 meters.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
- Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
- Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
- Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
30 to 50 cm of new snow will bond poorly to the underlying surface and may settle into a widespread and touchy storm slab problem. Start with small, low-consequence terrain and assess the snow surface on any aspect you are travelling on for clues of instability, like cracking, whumpfing or hollow drum-like sounds.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Dry
In steeper areas where the storm snow has not formed a cohesive slab, touchy dry loose avalanches will be widespread.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain
Expected Size: 1 - 2