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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 20th, 2023–Feb 21st, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

New snow and a change to northeasterly winds will create new wind slabs at ridge crest on southerly aspects. We are expecting continued natural wind slab and deep persistent slab avalanche activity.When assessing your ski objectives, look for overhead hazards such as large alpine bowls, cornices, or cross loaded slopes. Choose terrain conservatively and bear in mind the potential for a low probability high consequence avalanche occurrence.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Parkway patrol on Sunday observed isolated large natural deep persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5 in the alpine - 2 had stepped down to the basal facets.

Late report from Shangrila area of a large avalanche off Mnt Jeffrey reaching the creek likely on Feb 16.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

New snow from overnight Monday will be sitting on wind slabs in the alpine and exposed tree line formed by recent strong to extreme southwesterly winds. In sheltered locations the upper snowpack is comprised of 30cm settled snow from the past couple of weeks on top of a generally weak mid and lower snowpack with facets and depth hoar at the base. The height of snow is variable from 50 to 150cm.

Weather Summary

We are expecting up to 15cm new snow by Tuesday morning throughout the bulletin region. The Arctic airmass will descend and push the active low pressure to the south on Tuesday. Winds will be light overnight switching to moderate values from the northeast in the morning. Temperatures will plummet below seasonal values with isolated flurries continuing into Wednesday.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

With the new snow and a switch to northeasterly winds expect slab development on non typical lees. These wind slabs will have a potential to overload the deep persistent layer below and result in larger than expected avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Natural avalanches continue to step down to this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3