Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 7th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada rgoddard, Avalanche Canada

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Recent storm snow has been redistributed by moderate southwest winds. Use caution as you transition into wind-affected areas.

The best riding will be in sheltered areas above the rain line.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

There have not been reports of avalanche activity since Friday. Due to few reports and poor visibility, avalanche activity is unknown but suspected to have occurred in our region with this most recent storm.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40 cm of recent storm snow has fallen throughout our region. Southwest winds will have redistributed new and recent snow into fresh wind slabs in exposed alpine and treeline terrain. In sheltered areas, the storm snow will be resting on 15 to 25 cm of soft snow. A crust may be found in the upper snowpack on steep solar aspects and below 1800 m.

Although we haven't seen recent persistent slab avalanche activity on mid-snowpack layers, we're still tracking a weak layer of faceted snow or decomposing crust buried 50 to 100 cm deep. This storm will be a good test to see if these layers can be triggered naturally.

The bottom of the snowpack is comprised of weak, sugary facets and depth hoar. It has been most problematic in the Hurley/Birkenhead and north. This layer is still a concern for step-down avalanches or very large triggers such as cornice falls. It can be most easily triggered from steep and rocky start zones where the snowpack varies from thick to thin.

Generally, the snowpack in this region is weak and shallow. Snowpack depths around treeline range between 150 to 250 cm.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy, snow ending late in the day with trace accumulation overnight, winds southwest 15 to 25 km/h, treeline temperatures -8 C and cooling.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny with some clouds, no accumulation, winds southwest 12 to 18 km/h, treeline temperatures -9 C.

Thursday

Cloudy with sunny breaks, 10 cm accumulation, winds south 25 km/h climbing to 40, treeline temperatures around -5 C and warming.

Friday

Cloudy with possible late day sunny breaks, up to 15 cm accumulation ending in the afternoon, winds southwest 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -4 to -8 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow will have increase the chance of storm slab avalanches.

At lower elevation snow may be rain and it too will add load to the snow pack.

New snow and strong southwesterly winds are forming fresh wind slabs on lee slopes in the alpine and at treeline. Watch for typical wind loading around ridgelines and convexities and be aware of mid-slope cross loaded features.

Deeper weak layers have not produced avalanches for sometime, but may be possible to trigger with step down avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 8th, 2023 4:00PM