Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
wlewis,
Avalanche Canada
Stick to conservative terrain and give storm snow time to settle and bond before pushing into bigger avalanche terrain, keep an eye out for active wind transport building fresh wind slabs.
Small avalanches have the potential to trigger deeper weak layers. Assess conditions as you travel and gain information.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Thursday indicated reactive conditions with small, naturally triggered storm slabs occurring in steep terrain features. Explosive control work since Wednesday has produced slab avalanches up to size 2. We expect conditions to remain primed for human triggering, particularly in wind loaded terrain features.
Numerous reports of small loose dry avalanches (sluffing) within the recently fallen low-density surface snow.
We have very few eyes out there. If you do get out please consider reporting in the MIN.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 100 cm of recent storm snow has fallen within the last week. In wind affected terrain this will be redistributed into deeper deposits by recent variable winds. In sheltered terrain, cold temperatures will likely maintain low density snow with little cohesion.
The middle of the snowpack consists of weak sugary layers of facets and surface hoar. A widespread rain crust remains near the ground at treeline and below treeline.
At treeline, snowpack depths vary from 120-200 cm.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Mostly clear skies with dropping temperatures. Moderate westerly winds. No snowfall expected.
Sunday
Clear skies to start with increasing cloud. Light and variable winds. Alpine highs around -9. Isolated flurries may bring trace amounts late in the day.
MondayCloudy with up to 2 cm of snow. Winds are generally moderate from the west with strong gusts around ridgelines. Alpine highs of -12.
Tuesday5 cm of snow possible with cloudy skies. Alpine highs of -12. Winds are generally moderate from the west with strong gusts around ridgelines.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Expect storm snow to continue to be reactive to human triggers especially in terrain where the wind has deposited snow and increased cohesion - creating a slab. Wind directions have varied, watch for slabs on all aspects as you approach ridgelines.
It is possible small avalanches in the upper snowpack could trigger deeper weak layers, creating a larger then expected avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Buried layers of surface hoar and facets have been reportedly been reactive in nearby areas. This layer is widespread throughout the Lizard Flathead. It will be most reactive where the snow above these layers acts as a slab (as opposed to loose snow) such as wind loaded areas.
Observations on this layer are currently limited. In times of uncertainty such as this, the best defence is to keep terrain choices conservative and reduce your exposure to avalanche terrain where possible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 4th, 2022 4:00PM
