Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, South Rockies.
The likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase as more precipitation accumulates. If you see more than 15cm of fresh snow the danger will be CONSIDERABLE in the alpine.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches have been reported. On Friday the field team reported seeing an older wind slab in the northern Crowsnest area. Check this MIN for details.
With significant precipitation in the forecast, the likelihood of both natural and human-triggered avalanches is expected to rise throughout the stormy period and for several of the following days.
Snowpack Summary
5 to 10 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate by the end of the day on Sunday. This new snow will be covering a sun crust on south and west-facing slopes and at lower elevations. On north and east-facing upper-elevation slopes, the new snow may be covering old wind slabs.
A widespread crust formed in early February is currently buried 30 to 60 cm. In some areas, a persistent weak layer of faceted grains has formed above and/or below the crust.The lower snowpack is generally facetted with some old melt-freeze crusts.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy with 2 to 6 cm of new snow, 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 1500 m.
Sunday
Cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow, 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 1500 m.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow, 10 km/h northeast ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -10 °C.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud with trace amounts of snow, 5 to 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, treeline temperature -20 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
With the forecast winds you can expect storm slabs to be deeper and more reactive on lee northerly and easterly slopes, especially near ridgetops.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Weak faceted grains have formed above and below a crust that is buried 30 to 60 cm. There is potential for storm slabs to overload this layer, triggering a much larger avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5