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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 28th, 2023–Mar 29th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Solar warming should primarily factor into your trip planning - avoid exposure to southerly slopes and cornices.

Elevated hazard rating at tree line reflects increasing freezing level and solar influence during peak warming- take advantage of the good overnight freeze by starting and finishing early.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Cornice failures and loose wet avalanches may increase in the late afternoons (~14:00) with clear skies, direct sun, and rising daytime freezing levels.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

2-10cm of new snow through the region over a thin sun crust at all elevations on solar aspects. 20-50cm down is a persistent slab, within a variable strength mid-pack which bridges the basal facets and depth hoar at the base. The strength of the mid-pack is varied by aspect and elevation. Snow depth varies from 60-170cm.

Weather Summary

Forecasts call for high freezing levels (up to 2000m) and increasing clouds beginning in the late morning, Wednesday. This should be the warmest day of the week. A mix of sun and cloud on Thursday with a continued diurnal temperature pattern.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Wet loose avalanches will likely initiate from steep rocky terrain on southerly aspects, and may be large enough to trigger deeper problems.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom of the snowpack is inherently weak with well-developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Large triggers like cornices, and wet avalanches can step down to this deep persistent slab, present on all aspects, TL and above.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5