Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
This weekend will be warm, sunny, and it might feel like spring - but don’t be fooled. The snowpack is already stressed by rising temperatures, recent wind loading, and solar input.
Avoid sun-exposed slopes, watch for overhead hazards, and make conservative choices.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
Local natural avalanche activity has slowed down, though field teams are still finding signs of a large avalanche cycle across the bulletin region. Our nearest neighbors continue to observe natural size 2 to size 3 persistent slab avalanches.
The warm weather this weekend will further destabilize the already weak snowpack. Serious avalanche conditions remain, even if signs are not always obvious.
Snowpack Summary
The Icefields received 10 cm of snow Thursday morning, redistributed by strong westerly winds, creating wind loading lower on the slopes while stripping snow from the alpine and heavily affecting exposed treeline areas.
Last weekend’s 10-20 cm of snow sits over a layer of weak facets from the February drought, resting on old wind slabs, crusts, or depth hoar. Below 1600 m, warm temperatures and rain have saturated the weak snowpack.
Weather Summary
Expect to see spring-like weather this weekend with lots of sun and freezing levels rising to at least 2200m. The westerly winds have decreased but still within the 20-40 km/h range at ridgetop.
Freezing levels will still be around 2000m on Sunday but expect to see a small dip in temperatures with the potential for a little more snow.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
- Loose avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Recently redistributed snow from last week is sitting on top of a layer of weak facets from the February drought, which rests on old wind slabs, crusts, or depth hoar. With rising temperatures, human triggering of this layer remains likely.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Wet
With freezing levels creeping to at least 2200 m over the weekend and sunny skies in the forecast, loose wet avalanches should be on your radar. Steep slopes with direct sun are of most concern. Watch what is above you as loose rock and failing cornices can work as natural triggers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
The large depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack is inherently weak. The rising temperatures, solar input and recent wind loading has the potential to wake up this problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3