Shady aspect will remain cold today. Perhaps a minimal loose wet cycle on sunny aspects. Change your plans to suit the changing conditions.
Sunny aspects will become moist today. The steeper the terrain the more likely you will see activity. Expect this to be minimal, however avoid slopes that lead to terrain traps. Keep well clear of steep sided gullies. Work the sun, moving to shadier aspects late in the day if you see an increase in things like roller balling.
Water may lubricate weakened layers in the snowpack. The result can be a sudden, wet slab release. It may involve the whole pack in places. If you see a crack on the snow and the day is excessively warm, be wary. Move off solar aspects this afternoon.
Wind slab may be found in random areas. Be careful in and around entry points from the ridge-line. If in doubt, choose to be conservative. The base layer is slick. Any event could run a considerable distance.
No recent activity has been reported. Stronger than forecast winds, low humidity and cooler than forecast temps minimising surface softening yesterday
Well, forecast freezing levels did not eventuate yesterday. With a similar forecast today I suspect we will have the same issue. That being, cold SW winds keeping the snowpack cool and preventing a shift to widespread loose wet activity. North-facing slopes in the afternoon may become creamy hot powder, perhaps corn skiing at some elevations. Follow the sun as it softens the snowpack. However, shady aspects will remain cold. You may see some pin wheeling and roller-balling on sunny aspects.
A classic winters day ahead, fine and sunny. The freezing level lowering to 2100 m. Now here's the key, strong SW winds all day.
The base of the snowpack is certainly slick. You may encounter icy patches on most aspects. Add an ice axe and ski/foot crampons to your kit. This will have you prepared for anything you may encounter.
High
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
