Not a good weekend to get out in the mountains. Keep your powder dry!
Wind Slabs will be unlikely to trigger at upper elevation bands across the SE 1/2 above 1800m. Obviously wind loaded terrain, blowing snow and recent avalanche activity are all indicators of heightened danger.
Loose Wet avalanche will be likely in on all aspects and at all elevations. Avoid being out and about as rainfall begins at lower elevation bands. Look for roller balling or recent avalanche activity as a key sign of instability.
None have been observed in the past 48 hours.
The rain crust from 15/08 has seen significant warming & transitioned into a soft surface on the N 1/2. On the S 1/2 it is taking longer however surface softening is still occurring. Under this, up to 20cm of cold snow does remain above the previous spring like snowpack.
Severe gale NW winds will impact the Mt Hutt Range for the next 48 hours. Initially light rain, then snow is forecast over Saturday night with up to 5cm forecast. FAFL 1900m Saturday, 1500m rising to 2700m Sunday.
Surfaces are hard given recent freezing rain, especially in the morning. Crampons and an axe are recommended.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
