Heavy rain/snow and gale strength winds will make the backcountry an unpleasant place. The avalanche danger will be increasing in the days ahead.
New snow today will be transported on to lee aspects from gale strength winds. Wind-slab conditions will build rapidly. As the front approaches winds may change direction, decision-making may become difficult. If you are keen today be quick, perhaps mid-elevations are your best options.
We will have a burst of rain before temperatures drop. With no re-freeze overnight the pack is already moist. Be aware if rain intensifies. If you are out and about, time to head home !
No recent activity reported. Roller balling reported on most aspects.
Forecast rain did not quite make it this far east yesterday. It will make it today. Little change in snowpack strength yesterday. The pack became moist on all aspects above 1800 m. Today, snow forecast to around 1200 m late afternoon and gale NW winds above 110 kph. Expect wind-slab conditions to rapidly develop. We may see rain on snow before the main front arrives. Remember, many hidden hazards sit just below a thin snowpack.
Our dry morning won't last. Expect rain/snow from lunch, becoming heavy this afternoon. Winds from the NW ramping up to severe gale strength. The freezing level slowly lowering to 1400 m during the afternoon.
With warmer temps and rain initially, we have minimal concerns about a sliding danger.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
