Increasing winds from the North will increase the likelihood of Wind Slabs on the Southern 1/2. Watch for hollow sounding, denser snow near ridgetops.
Northerly winds will redistribute any snow available to Southern aspects Watch for wind direction changes throughout the day and adjust plans accordingly. These slabs could be difficult to trigger however be cautious if seeking steep terrain on these aspects above 1700m.
With a rising freezing level, the snow surface will soften quickly. Be aware of steep slopes softening quickly during the heat of the day on all aspects. Rollerballing is the first sign of the surface loosing cohesion.
X3 very small Wind Slabs reported in Tarn Basin 10/08
Small Wind Slab observed in Crystal Valley 11/08
Snow coverage across the forecast area is super variable. Up to 150cm in some areas down to rime covered rocks. Tests above 1700m show a thick rain crust is found closer to the ground (30-60cm down) on most aspects with a thin layer of sugary crystals (Facets) observed both above and below. Although not reactive to skier traffic right now the lower snowpack will require monitoring over the next few weeks. New loading by snow, wind or rain may affect this layer so we will need to remain vigilant to see if it weakens or gains strength. Around 15cm of new snow in the past 72hrs has fallen above 1500m with rain or drizzle falling below this elevation.
Wednesday: Cloudy periods. Rain developing in the morning, more persistent and heavier from the afternoon. Snow lowering to 2000m. Northerly winds rising to gale in the morning. Freezing level 1800m rising to 2300m in the afternoon.
Thursday: A few showers clearing to fine in the afternoon. Northerly winds turning Northwest in the afternoon. Freezing level 2400m lowering to around 2000m in the afternoon.
Wind stripped areas and exposed ridges will be very firm.
Ice axe and Crampons are recommended if venturing out.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
