Watch the winds! Avalanche danger could be higher at treeline in the parts of the region that see moderate winds. Back off if you notice blowing or drifting snow.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY: flurries starting overnight and becoming heavy snow through the day with accumulations of 10 to 20cm expected, light to moderate southwesterly winds, 1400m freezing level. MONDAY: flurries, light southerly winds, 1200m freezing level. TUESDAY: snow starting overnight with up to 20cm possible by the end of the day, light to moderate southerly winds, 1200m freezing level.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Friday. Earlier in the week a few size 1-2 wind slabs were triggered naturally and by skiers, however this activity seems to have slowed. Cornices are reported to be large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.
Snowpack Summary
Cornices are large and weak. A refreeze crust may cap moist snow bellow treeline and on solar slopes into the alpine. Older wind slabs are gaining strength, but may still be reactive to human triggers, especially in steep lee features in the alpine, and may be triggered by cornice fall. Several crusts can be found in the upper meter of the snowpack depending on aspect and elevation. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January is down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick, widespread crust.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.