Heavy snow and strong northwest winds have battered the Aspiring region since Monday and may persist through Wednesday
With continued snowfall, strong winds and blowing snow, the avalanche risk is considerable.
With forecast strong northwest winds, more new snow and blowing snow, wind slab is likely to continue forming on east and south aspects above around 1600-1700m on Wednesday.
Until the storm cycle finishes, these will continue to increase in size and likelihood. Natural avalanches are still possible.
Best avoid avalanche terrain, stick to your local field, and let the storm pass.
The snowpack below around 1600m has been heavily rain-soaked. A round of small natural loose wet avalanches has likely taken place out of specific steep terrain features on all aspects that were holding enough snow.
A cycle of natural avalanches is likely to have run during the current storm, ranging from loose wet below around 1600m and wind slabs in the upper elevation bands.
If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.
60-70cm of new snow has fallen since Monday, tapering off to rain between 1500-1700m as temperatures fluctuated. Gale northwesterly winds during this time will have redistributed much of the new storm snow.
Previously on the 8th July, 5- 10 cm of new snow fell to around 900m. Gale south easterly winds during this storm stripped some exposed areas and loaded ridgetops and other terrain features. On the 5th, a notable 1-2cm rime crust formed above 1650m to the east of the region around Wanaka and may be present in some eastern areas of the Aspiring region too. Below this, 30- 50 cm of settled snow from the 3rd of July overlies a solid ice layer. A week of clear skies and cold temperatures has started to facet and weaken the strength of this shallow 50- 70 cm snowpack and should be monitored carefully once buried under the new load of snow.
Information and observations are currently very limited.
Forecast for Wednesday
Isolated showers turning to rain, possibly heavy, for a time in the morning and afternoon. Snow to 1100 metres.
Wind at 1000 metres Northwesterly 30 km/h, rising to 50 km/h at night.
Wind at 2000 metres Northwesterly gale 65 km/h, easing to 40 km/h in the morning, rising to 60 km/h late evening.
Wind at 3000 metres Westerly gale 85 km/h, easing to 55 km/h in the morning, rising to gale 85 km/h late evening.
Freezing level 1400 metres.
Issued: 12:58pm Tue 14 Jul
The incoming snowfall should have reduced the sliding danger up high, however below 1600m where rain-soaked snow begins to freeze, conditions may become very slick.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
