Avalanche forecast

Aspiring

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired last month. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Although the new snow appears to be settling, remember the Aspiring region is very large, and there is still very limited information around the structure of its snowpack.

Careful assessment and conservative terrain should be in the plan.

Very slick conditions currently exist below around 1650m.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Wind slabs formed since Monday on mostly east- and south-facing aspects could be in excess of 100cm and may still be reactive on Friday.Until there is more evidence that this new load of snow has bonded, conservative terrain choices should be made.

Recent Avalanche Activity

On Thursday a look around the South Richardsons and Tyndall glacier area in the central part of the region revealed 1 Large avalanche ran off the Tyndall glacier on a SE aspect at 2400m. There was very little other significant activity observed in these areas. There have been no observations at the head of the West Matukituki or further north, where similar results could be expected.

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Current Snowpack Conditions

60-70cm of new snow fell out of the last storm. This tapered off to rain between 1500-1700m as temperatures fluctuated. Gale northwesterly winds during this storm redistributed much of the new snow, leaving many west aspects stripped back to old ice layers and other lee areas with loading in excess of 100cm. Below this recent storm snow was a very shallow early season snowpack of approximately 30- 50 cm that had started to facet over week of fine cold weather. Above, around 1900m a very hard ice layer exists at the very bottom of the pack.

This most recent load of snow came in warm and should start to gain strength; however, the Aspiring region is very large, and other unknown weaknesses buried deeper in the pack could exist.

Mountain Weather

Friday

Showers developing in the morning.

Wind at 1000 metres Westerly 45 km/h.

Wind at 2000 metres Gale westerly 65 km/h.

Wind at 3000 metres Gale westerly 80 km/h.

Freezing level 2300 metres, lowering to 1500 metres in the morning.

Issued: 1:11pm Thu 16 Jul

Sliding Danger

West-facing aspects may be stripped back to firm ice at all elevations. Below 1650m where rain-soaked snow has frozen, conditions are very slick.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered