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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2023–Jan 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

The current snowpack demands a thoughtful approach to avalanche terrain. Avoid steep terrain with shallow, variable snow depths where triggering deep weak layers is more likely.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 10 cm of low-density snow since the weekend overlies a generally well-settled upper snowpack. The mid and lower snowpack consists of loose facets, with a significant weak layer of large facets and a crust down 80 to 120 cm from the surface. The snow below the crust is generally weak and unconsolidated.

Treeline snow depths are roughly 140 to 160 cm.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Cloudy with clear periods, no precipitation. Very light ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, with trace snow. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -0 to -5 C.

Friday

Cloudy, with flurries, 0 to 2 cm. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures around 0 C. Freezing levels 2000 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with light snow, 0 to 5 cm. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures around 0 C. Freezing levels 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.