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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2021–Mar 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Fresh snow is expected to accumulate during the day, with strong southwest wind. The timing of the storm's arrival is uncertain, so watch for changing conditions and look for clues of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or recent avalanches. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -2 / freezing level 1700 m

SUNDAY - Snow, 10-20 cm, with another 15-20 cm overnight / strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -1 / freezing level 1800 m

MONDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / moderate west wind / alpine high temperature near -7 

TUESDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light to moderate west wind / alpine high temperature near -5 / freezing level 1500 m

Avalanche Summary

Fresh storm slabs are expected to build and become increasingly reactive throughout the day on Sunday. Wet loose avalanches are possible at lower elevations where rain is expected.

On Friday, there were a few reports of size 1 human triggered storm slab avalanches on north aspects in the alpine.

On Thursday there were a few reports of natural size 1.5-2 storm slab avalanches, as well as a size 1.5 explosive-triggered cornice.

A large (size 2) glide slab occurred overnight last Friday on a lower elevation slope on Mt. Fernie. It may have been coaxed into action by overnight rainfall. This serves as a great reminder to avoid slopes with glide cracks on them at all times. They are inherently unstable and can release at any time.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of snow is expected to accumulate during the day on Sunday with strong southwest wind. The precipitation may fall as rain below treeline.

Fresh storm slabs are expected to build throughout the day. This new snow will fall on a variety of old surfaces, such as a crust below about 1700 m and on solar aspects, and onto wind affected snow at upper elevations.

 The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.