Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2017–Apr 6th, 2017

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

There is distinct variability in avalanche conditions between the north and south of the region. In the north of the region recent heavy loads such as cornice falls have been sporadically triggering full depth avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Scattered showers or flurries, accumulation 5cm / Moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -1 / Freezing level 1600mFRIDAY: Flurries in the north and a mix of rain and snow in the south, accumulation 5cm in the north and 25-30cm in the south / Moderate to strong south wind / Alpine temperature -1 / Freezing level 1600mSATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10cm / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -3 / Freezing level 1200m

Avalanche Summary

A Mountain Information Network post from Monday describes a cornice triggered avalanche stepping down to the November deep persistent weak layer or ground in the alpine on a North aspect. Click here to read more details in the post itself. An additional report from Monday indicates a size 2.5 explosives controlled cornice failure stepping down to what was suspected to be a mid-February persistent weak layer in the Duffy Lake area. Yet another report from the same area indicates a size 3 large explosives triggered avalanche stepping down to what was suspected to be a November persistent weak layer. There have been no new avalanche reports from the Coquihalla area or south of the region in the past several days.On Wednesday, recently formed wind slabs are expected to remain reactive to human triggering. These slabs are expected to be particularly touchy where they overlie a melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 5 to 15cm of new snow is sitting on a widespread melt-freeze crust on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation north facing terrain. Recent strong winds from the south have formed new wind slabs in the alpine and have added load to cornices. On sun exposed slopes and at lower elevations, several crusts likely exist in the upper snowpack which are generally well bonded. Both the mid February persistent weak layers and November deep persistent weak layer seem to have become reactive to heavy loads (cornice falls and/or large explosives triggers) at upper elevations in the northern part of the region near the Duffey Lakes and Birkenhead Lake.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.