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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 6th, 2015–Feb 7th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

Avalanche danger is high due to loading from new snow or rain, and wind.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The Pineapple Express which has been bringing lots of moisture and warm temperatures over the Southern part of BC, will continue to spread heavy precipitation until the end of the day Saturday, taper off on Sunday and pick up again on Monday as another storm passes through. Freezing levels are expected to hover between 1700m and 2000m and winds to blow moderate to strong from the southwest on Saturday. 

Avalanche Summary

A natural slab and loose avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 within the new snow started on Thursday afternoon. I suspect that avalanche conditions were similar on Friday even though poor visibility did not allow for good observations. 

Snowpack Summary

The top 30 to 40 cm of snow sitting over the late January crust is now either wet or moist above ~1900m.  The rain forecast up to 1900m through Saturday will continue to break down the late January crust, increasing the possibility of avalanches stepping down to deeper weak layers.  Avalanche danger will therefore stay high and traveling in the backcountry will remain very dangerous. The mid-January weak layer of buried surface hoar is now down 35-75 cm. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar combo is found down 60 - 110 cm and could come out of its dormant stage making for some very large avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Expect heavy snow to keep accumulating in the alpine adding load to the current storm slab and wind slabs to keep developing on North and NorthEast facing slopes.
Choose regroup spots that are out of avalanche terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Wet Slabs

Wet loose and slab avalanches are expected to slide naturally at elevations where the surface snow will be saturated with water.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar or crust/facet layer.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5