Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 13th, 2019 4:08PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

mconlan, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Warm air and sunny skies should prevail at higher elevations. The amount of warming and its influence on the snowpack is uncertain. Observe for signs of snowpack warming, travel conservatively, and expect rapid changes to the snowpack over the day.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear skies, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 1800 m and 2300 m.MONDAY: Clear skies, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -1 C, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 1800 m and 2200 m.TUESDAY: Clear skies, light southwest winds, alpine temperature 0 C, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 1800 m and 2400 m.WEDNESDAY: Clear skies, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Saturday. On Friday, a couple small wind slabs and storm slabs were triggered naturally and by skiers. They were mostly in alpine terrain and 20 to 50 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Warm air temperatures and sunny skies at higher elevations may impact the snow surface. You may find dry or moist snow, depending on how warm it gets. On south aspects, you will likely find loose and moist snow during the day and a sun crust at night. Also expect to find a surface crust on all aspects below 1500 m. Wind slabs are still being reported as widespread in alpine terrain. The warming may make these slabs easier to trigger.There are a few deeper weaknesses in the snowpack. Professionals are still tracking a layer around 150 to 200 cm deep, composed of sugary faceted grains, feathery surface hoar, and a sun crust. The base of the snowpack may also still be composed of weak faceted grains in parts of the region. The likelihood of triggering these layers may increase with the warm air incoming this weekend. These layers would most likely be triggered by humans in areas where the snowpack is shallow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are being reported as widespread in exposed terrain. The warm air and sunny skies may make these slabs more reactive. Observe for signs of warming, like moist snow, pinwheeling, or sluffing. Back-off if you notice instability.

Avoid steep slopes on warm and sunny days.Cornices may be touchy; stay well-back on ridges and avoid travelling beneath them.Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Valid until: Jan 14th, 2019 2:00PM