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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2019–Jan 3rd, 2019
Alpine
5: Extreme
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be extreme
Treeline
5: Extreme
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be extreme
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Avoid all avalanche terrain on Thursday!

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Heavy snowfall with accumulations of 30-40 cm, freezing level rising to 1600 m by the morning, strong to extreme wind from the southwest.THURSDAY: 40-60 cm of snow, freezing level peaking around 1600 m in the morning then dropping to 1200 m throughout the day, extreme wind from the southwest.FRIDAY: Another 15-25 cm of snow, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, freezing level steady around 1200 m.SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with some isolated flurries, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

Preliminary reports from Wednesday indicate the storm was already producing small storm slabs in the first 5-15 cm of snow. The size and likelihood of these storm slabs will progressively increase throughout the storm.Last weekend, explosives produced small and large slab avalanches (size 1-2), some of which ran on the December 26 surface hoar layer.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow will rapidly accumulate on Thursday, with 60-100 cm of fresh snow possible by the afternoon. Rising then dropping freezing level will create an interesting mix of rain and snow at treeline and below treeline elevations.A weak layer composed of surface hoar that was buried on December 26 can be found at treeline elevations 30-50 cm below the new storm snow. This layer has shown some signs of reactivity in the past few days, and the incoming storm will definitely stress this layer.In the lower snowpack, a weak layer of sugary facets is now 150 to 200 cm deep. There have not been reports of avalanches on this layer for over a week, but it may still be reactive to heavy loads in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Large natural avalanches will be widespread with up to 100 cm of new snow, extreme wind, and fluctuating freezing levels.
Avoid all avalanche terrain.Very large avalanches may reach run out zones.Storm slabs may also step down to deeper layers resulting in very large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Certain

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5

Loose Wet

Heavy rain falling on fresh snow will create loose wet avalanches too.
Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2