Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 26th, 2018 4:33PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

kdevine, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

As the storm continues, hazard will increase in areas experiencing heavy snowfall, warm temperatures and high winds. Conservative terrain selection with minimal overhead hazard is advised.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Forecast snowfall amounts vary greatly for the Cariboos, with the highest amounts predicted for the southern portion of the region. MONDAY NIGHT - Flurries, 5-15 cm / moderate south winds / freezing level 1200-1400mTUESDAY - Snow, 5-15 cm / moderate south winds / freezing level 1500-1700mWENESDAY - Cloudy with flurries, up to 5 cm / moderate south winds / freezing level 1500mTHURSDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries / light to moderate southwest winds / freezing level 1200-1400m

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations have been reported in the region. This may be due to low numbers of field observations rather than a lack of avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Ongoing snowfall since Sunday night in the Cariboo region brings total recent storm snow amounts to anywhere from 35-50 cm by Tuesday morning. Since the snow is expected to continue through Tuesday, total accumulations could reach 40-65 cm by the end of the day. This new snow is sitting on top of a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and sun crust on steeper south facing slopes.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. There have been very limited reports of this layer showing signs of reactivity in the Cariboos, however with strong winds, rising freezing levels and heavy snowfall amounts, this layer could wake up during this storm. Storm snow avalanches may have the potential to trigger large, full depth avalanches on this layer.Snowpack depths taper quickly with elevation.

Problems

Storm Slabs

35-50 cm of recent snow sits above a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals at upper elevations. The likelihood of triggering this layer will increase with additional snow, wind and warm temperatures.

If triggered, the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Be extra cautious around sheltered openings near treeline where surface hoar may be most prominent.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 27th, 2018 2:00PM