Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

If the forecasted snow shows up (15 to 30cms), it will likely create dangerous avalanche conditions.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Over the next 24 hours freezing levels will rise to 1,500m. Winds will be moderate from the south west and gusting to strong strong values in the alpine. 15 to 30 cm forecast over the next 72 hours , tapering off by Wednesday afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

Multiple surface and buried wind slabs overlying a variety of faceted weaknesses to ground. Extensive scouring and wind affect in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecasted snow amounts expected to be 10 to 30cms over the next 24 hours. Regardless of volume, this snow will fall on to a variety of surface forms (rocks, small surface hoar; facets, or hard windslabs).

It is a good time to stay within the boundaries of a ski resort.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

If triggered, potential for large destructive avalanches incorporating the season's snowpack.

Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2017 4:00PM