Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 14th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Might be a nice day to visit your local coffee shop!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night to Wednesday noon will be 25-40km/hr SW winds, 15-25cm of snow, warm temperatures, freezing level 2000m, and rain in the valley bottom. Thursday -Friday will cool to -8 to -12 and flurries. There is a snow warning just to the South of our region so expect poor conditions through the Icefields.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate Southwest winds creating slabs in open areas at TL and above. Generally its bonding to the old snow interface in most areas yet more snow is on the way that could tip the scales. The mid-pack consists of persistent slab layers intermixed with weak facets. The base is weak facets, depth hoar, and an ice crust from November.

Avalanche Summary

No Patrol on Tuesday. Monday's patrol observed several wet loose size 1's running in the storm snow at treeline in the Big Bend area. They were likely triggered by solar radiation and warm temperatures. March 11 skiers remotely triggered two size 2.5's 1.5m thick and 35m wide. We are expecting natural activity to increase with the incoming weather.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Loose Wet

Expect an increase in loose surface avalanches particularly as more snow is arriving and rain in valley. Once storm passes, it will become active particularly when the sun comes out. Use caution around terrain traps.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Be very cautious with gully features.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

SW winds creating slabs on lee and pressing snow on windward aspects. May be overtop decomposed SH layer on CR 30cm down on South TL aspects.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Natural activity expected and will be a major concern with the extremely weak base of depth hoar. Trigger spots would be shallow zones or a step down effect if upper layers are initiated.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Mar 15th, 2017 4:00PM