Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 21st, 2012 5:25PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

landon shepherd, Parks Canada

Jasper.

The cornice building conditions have been excellent recently and cornice anchoring sites on ridgetops (with lots of wind-exposed dark rocks!) are now getting strong solar radiation.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Snowpack Summary

Avalanche Summary

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

The buried surface hoar layer is a concern in areas that have not avalanched already. Solar effect is a likely trigger in the afternoon directly on solar terrain or indirectly by causing cornice failure onto shaded lee slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Storm Slabs

Primarily southwest moderate alpine winds continue to form slabs and large cornices on lee aspects, but previous variable winds have also reverse loaded some features. Smaller windslab avalanches may step down to deeper instabilities.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Surface snow is responding to strong solar radiation that happens in March/April. Ice climbers should also be wary of large pillows of snow still above routes on solar aspects. Even thick surface crusts will break down with sustained solar energy.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 22nd, 2012 4:00PM