Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 16th, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Cold overnight temperatures can make hanging ice features like daggers and pillars brittle. Be cautious exposing yourself to these type of features.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Thursday shaping up to be another great day in the mountains. Cold overnight temps in the -15 to -20 range with some recovery during the day and, downright pleasant in the sun and out of the wind. Models forecasting light winds from the west. Snow forecast to come in Friday and into Saturday though it might be too early to make guesses on how much.

Snowpack Summary

The snow pack is consistently supportive with little variation in mid-pack density above 2000ms. Excellent quality touring and skiing at all elevations. Cold overnight temps promoting surface facetting. Dec 3rd interface is down approx. 45-60cm but it is not easily triggered. Below 1900ms the HS is more typical of the Rockies; weak and shallow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed and reported

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

A thin windslab can be found in lee areas at treeline and into the alpine. Several natural avalanches started with this slab and then stepped down to full depth releases in the alpine following last weeks storm.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The Dec3 layer down 60cm has not been associated with any observed natural activity nor has it proven to be reactive to skier traffic. Further cooling temperatures and the consistently supportive mid-pack helping increase confidence in this layer.

Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 17th, 2015 4:00PM