Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Nov 25th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
Be cautious with your terrain choices as the storm winds down. Ease into terrain, slabs will remain sensitive to human triggers.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
The storm continues. There is likely to be a short break of cooler, calmer, drier weather before we are back into storming and warming on Saturday night.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Freezing level rising to 1500Â m, strong southwest wind, 5-20 cm snow expected.
FRIDAY: Cloud cover will potentially break in the afternoon, temperatures cooling, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace-5 cm snow expected.
SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover at dawn, clearing in the afternoon, freezing level at valley bottom, Alpine low -12 Light to Moderate winds variable from west to south. Snowfall starting in the afternoon or evening as the next weather system arrives.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Freezing level rising back to 1500 m. Weather models are not consistent on snowfall amounts. Likely to be around 10 cm, but we could see 0-25 cm.Â
Avalanche Summary
The North Rockies field team was riding west of McBride on Wednesday, and they found isolated wind slabs 15-25 cm deep in lee slopes with the potential to produce small avalanches (see MIN post here). Continuing snowfall and wind will increase the potential size and likelihood of natural and human triggered avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Storm snow from the last couple of days continues to accumulate and form slabs, especially in wind exposed terrain. You'll likely find wind hammered hard slab in the alpine.Â
A widespread Nov 16th Facet/Crust interface appears to be bonding well, but keep a close eye on it as the snow load increases. The lower snowpack contains two older crusts that are holding strong.
Snowpack depths range from 75-180 at treeline, with alpine depths exceeding 250 cm. The deepest snowpacks are reported near Blue River and Valemount. Below 1600 m, snowpack depths decrease rapidly.
Early season hazards are very real right now, be wary of thin/shallow snowpacks where the crust isn't supportive, rocks, stumps, creeks, and other sharks could be hidden under a dusting of fresh snow.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
- Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
Problems
Storm Slabs
The continuing snow and wind will likely continue to build sensitive storm slabs at and above treeline. Rain falling at treeline may induce a round of small wet loose avalanches too.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Nov 26th, 2021 4:00PM
