Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

Lisa Paulson, Parks Canada

Banff Yoho Kootenay.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=15678&oPark=100092Good time to avoid all avalanche terrain and stay in bounds. We are seeing many unusual & large avalanches. Their have been several avalanche involvements over the week. The forecasted sun and warm temperatures will likely trigger more avalanches.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Clear skies forecasted for the next few days, light winds, and alpine temperatures expected to climb to +3C on Saturday. Sunday will be cooler as a cold front passes in the morning. The warming and direct sun will likely trigger more large natural avalanches on Friday and Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds have created widespread windslabs on lee aspects (N-SE) and stripped all the snow off windward aspects. The new snow and wind loading has overloaded the basal weakness and is responsible for the widespread natural avalanche cycle we have been seeing. Conditions remain prime for human triggering

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control today on Bourgeau and Vermillion produced several large avalanches up to size 3.5. Impressive propagations up to 500 m and crowns as deep as 2 m. Some avalanches today and yesterday triggered large sympathetic avalanches on neighboring terrain and on the backside of features being controlled. Touchy!

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Full depth avalanches continue to be seen daily on this layer. We expect another natural avalanche cycle on this layer on sunny aspects with the forecasted temperatures and sun. Even a cornice release in the heat could trigger a large avalanche.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Stick to non-avalanche terrain or small features with limited consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Wind Slabs

Any windslabs triggered will likely step down to the basal facets and trigger a much larger avalanche.

Good day to make conservative terrain choices.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2014 4:00PM