Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
New snow and rain will bring the first significant change to the snowpack in several days.
Choose mellow terrain, and give the new snow time to bond to the old surface.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported in this region.
We expect that with the incoming snow and rain, human-triggered avalanches will be likely.
If you do go into the backcountry, please consider submitting a MIN report.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate precipitation with fluctuating freezing levels could leave us with up to 30 cm of new snow in the alpine. Moderate to strong southwest wind will likely be forming, deeper more reactive slabs on north and east facing terrain. At treeline, the snow will turn to rain through the day, potentially forming a loose wet avalanche problem.
Underneath the new snow, around 5 cm of settling or wet snow sits on a thick, hard, melt-freeze crust that is present up to mountain tops in most areas.
Below treeline, most areas are below the threshold for forming avalanches.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy. 10-15 cm of snow above 750 m. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, shifting to south through the night. Treeline low around -2 °C.
Sunday
Cloudy. Moderate rain. 5-15 cm of snow above 1250 m. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 1 °C.
Monday
Sunny. Light snow/rain overnight. Strong northwest ridgetop wind easing off through the day. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level dropping to 500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
- Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will likely be getting deeper and more reactive through the day in the alpine, especially on north through east-facing slopes that are getting rapidly loaded by moderate to strong southwest winds.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
As it gets warmer through the day, the snow will turn to rain. Expect previously dry surface snow in treeline terrain to get less stable as it gets wetter and heavier.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2