Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Wet loose avalanches are becoming less likely, but let the snow surface tell it to you straight. If your steps plunge into slushy wet snow, steep slopes can still release. If a firm crust has set up, avalanche activity is unlikely. Watch for changes with daytime warming.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday night: Mainly clear. Light to moderate northwest winds. Freezing level remaining near 3300 metres
Thursday: Mainly sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +4 with freezing levels falling from 3000 to 2500 metres, remaining elevated overnight.
Friday: Sunny. Light variable winds. Treeline high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels to 2700 metres, remaining elevated overnight.
Saturday: Sunny. Light north winds. Treeline high temperatures around +9 with freezing levels to 3300 metres, remaining elevated overnight.
Avalanche Summary
Tuesday's transition from snowfall to rain likely initiated numerous small wet loose releases. Larger releases may have occurred in areas that hadn't seen rain over the weekend - mainly higher elevations.
Looking forward, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of surface crust formation. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain where the upper snowpack reaches an isothermal state (wet snow throughout). As surface crusts form and as free water drains from the upper snowpack, this potential will diminish rapidly.
Snowpack Summary
10-30 mm of rain Tuesday evening wet the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of surface crust may occur with clear overnight periods in open areas. Any crust that does form will deteriorate with daytime heating.
Below the surface, a variable 10-60 cm of moist to wet snow and deteriorating crust layers sit on the thick late January crust. This crust extends to mountain tops on all aspects.
The mid and lower snow pack is composed of yet more moist to wet snow that is well settled. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks at or just below the surface.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Rain has been saturating the upper snowpack. Where surface crusts fail to form and the upper snowpack remains wet, wet loose avalanches in steep terrain are possible. This potential will fade as free water drains from the upper snowpack and with the formation of surface crust.
Aspects: South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5