Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

The cold front moves out of the region tonight, light flurries continue Tuesday. A high pressure builds Wednesday, bringing mostly dry conditions and scattered cloud.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light snowfall delivering trace to 3cm overnight. Light westerly winds. Freezing levels 500-1000 m. 

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light northwest winds. Flurries. Freezing levels reach 1200m. Alpine high of -3. 

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloudy with light westerly winds. Freezing levels around 1300m, alpine high of -3. Chance of isolated flurries. 

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudy with strong westerly winds. Freezing levels rise toward 2000 m. Alpine high of 0. 

A large persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Steeples on Saturday afternoon, on a south facing aspect at 2300 m. This avalanche had wide propagation and ran for 2 km. It is believed to have occurred on the late January persistent weak layer, crowns were estimated at 50 cm deep.  

Loose wet avalanches were observed throughout the warming trend last week, to size 2 in sun-baked south facing terrain features. 

Light snowfall will overly dense wind effected surfaces in exposed terrain at treeline and alpine elevations. In sheltered areas and lower elevations, new snow will fall on a widespread melt freeze crust. 

The late January interface is buried 10-30 cm deep. It consists of a surface hoar layer found mainly in the north of of the region in sheltered terrain.

The mid January rain crust is now around 20-70 cm deep with weak faceted snow above. In general, this exists on all aspects at lower elevations and then can be found on south facing slopes at higher elevations. In heavily wind scoured areas at treeline and above this crust may even be found on the surface. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

• Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.