Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
Wind will continue to build fresh slabs where it finds loose snow. Recent wind slabs have been most reactive where they overlie a crust.
Confidence
Moderate -
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, temperatures cool with overnight low of -8 C. Moderate and decreasing northwest wind, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Decreasing moderate to light northwest wind, high temperatures dropping to -4 C, and freezing level below 1000 m.
TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Gusty southwest wind. High temperature -6 C. Freezing level at valley bottom.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny with increasing cloud. Light southwest wind. High temperature -6 C.
Avalanche Summary
A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday with size 2-3 storm and wind slabs observed in alpine terrain. Check out this MIN from our field team.
A deep persistent avalanche problem in the North Columbia forecast region has produced recent large and notable avalanches, and the south east corner of the Cariboos appears to have a similar lingering problem. On Saturday, explosives triggered a 2.5 deep persistent avalanche on a northeast aspect at 2100 m. And during during last week's warm storm, a few size 2-2.5 deep persistent slab avalanches were observed near Blue River.
Snowpack Summary
Winds have stiffened 20-35 cm recent snow in open areas at treeline and throughout the alpine. A few isolated surface hoar layers have been observed in the upper snowpack (top 100 cm), as well as a thin breakable crust that extends 1600-1800 m (under about 20 cm new snow), but we have not seen avalanche activity on these layers.
The lower snowpack is strong and settled in most parts of the region, except the southernmost part of the region around Blue River where there is a deeply buried crust/facet layer that could be exhibiting similar behaviour to the deep persistent slab problem in the neighbouring North Columbia region. This layer is most prevalent at below treeline elevations and has been reactive to heavy triggers like smaller wind slab avalanches that step down to this layer.
Terrain and Travel
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
- Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
- Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind will continue to build fresh slabs where it finds loose snow.
Expect to find more reactive depositions in open terrain and steep, convex features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2