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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2022–Feb 20th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Keep terrain selection conservative as storm snow accumulates. Expect the new snow to bond poorly to the old snow surface and be reactive to human triggers. 

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing up to 5 cm. Winds ease to light southwesterlies. Freezing levels below valley bottom. 

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing another 5-10 cm of snow, light easterly winds. Freezing levels at valley bottom, alpine high of -10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate winds from the northeast. Chance of isolated flurries. Freezing levels at valley bottom. Alpine high of -20. 

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, light to moderate northeast winds. Chance of isolated flurries. Freezing levels at valley bottom. Alpine high of -20. 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity over the past few days has been limited to small slab and loose avalanches in steep alpine terrain. With the incoming storm we could expect to see larger slabs forming at upper elevations, reactive to human triggers.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will form storm slabs at all elevations. The storm snow will bury a melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevations, and hard wind affected surfaces in exposed terrain. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is currently considered dormant, but could become active later this season. Check out the forecaster blog for more information. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh and reactive storm slabs will build overnight and into Sunday. Expect deeper deposits in wind affected areas - around ridgelines and on easterly facing slopes. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2