Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Continue to choose riding areas sheltered from the wind, and you'll keep finding cold, dry powder. You might choose to stay below treeline as the wind picks up and shifts to the southwest to herald the arrival of a new storm and a new year.
Confidence
Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
The weekend weather should be quite wild, and vary greatly through the forecast region.Â
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear, becoming overcast by the morning. No new snow expected. Light to moderate northwest wind with possible strong winds at higher elevations. treeline temperatures around -7 C.
SATURDAY: Overcast. 2-10 cm of snow expected. Extreme southwest wind. Freezing levels rising to 250m by the afternoon.
SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 25-50 cm of snow expected overnight, with another 0-15 through the day. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1000 m overnight, dropping back to 500 during the day.Â
MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 0-15 cm of snow expected overnight, and another 5cm through the day. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level around 400 m.
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Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, our Vancouver Island field team reported a size 1, naturally triggered windslab avalanche in the Mt. Beadnell area. It was 10-20 cm deep and started just below a ridge top. You can find more info on their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post.
Windslabs can be most reactive when they are fresh, so continually evaluate conditions as you travel.Â
No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10cm of new snow is forecast to fall through the day, and there is plenty of soft, light snow available for transport.
Recent northwesterly winds have created wind slabs in atypical cross-loading and reverse loading patterns, but the winds today switch back to southwest, likely building new wind slabs in a more standard pattern of north through west facing slopes.Â
30-50 cm now sits over a freezing rain crust below 1500 m and above this elevation it may rest on a layer of large surface hoar crystals. Our field team reported easy shears on this layer in their MIN report last week.Â
The lower snowpack is generally well bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Approach steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes cautiously.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Avoid slopes that sound hollow or drum-like.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
With plenty of soft, light snow available for wind transport, expect to see wind slab formation in the alpine and open areas near treeline.
Today's prevailing wind will be from the southwest, resulting in fresh, reactive windslabs forming in more typical locations.
Recent north or northwest wind means atypical cross-loading and reverse loading patterns are still present. Be especially cautious near ridgetops.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2