Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

A series of fronts moves inland creating warm, wet and windy conditions.

MONDAY NIGHT: Heavy rain and snow continues. 20-50mm expected by Tuesday morning. Freezing levels remain around 1700m overnight. Strong to extreme southwest winds. 

TUESDAY: Freezing levels climb over the day to 2000m. Rain and snow eases, 10-15mm over the day, an additional 20mm may fall by Wednesday morning. Winds remain strong from the southwest. 

WEDNESDAY: Freezing levels climb to 2500mm and rain continues delivering 20-40mm during the day and another 20-40mm overnight. Strong southwest winds continue. 

THURSDAY: Finally the rain eases off early morning with clearing skies. Freezing levels remain above 2000m with no precipitation expected and light easterly winds. 

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred at all elevations with the incoming precipitation and warm temperatures received on Monday night. 

Wet loose avalanches were already observed on Sunday on South facing slopes to size 1 with the increased temperatures and solar input.

Heavy mixed precipitation and warm temperatures will rapidly create a wet and saturated snow surface with little cohesion. A series of crusts from recent rain and warmer temperatures are present up to 1400m. Expect the rain to break down crusts on the surface and saturate the snow below. 

This overlies 100+ cm of snow that has accumulated since January 1, which reports suggest is bonding well to the snowpack.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
• If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.