Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
A variable supportive to breakable crust or moist snow at surface reduce the likelihood of avalanche activity, but makes travel difficult and hazardous.
Confidence
High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast
Weather Forecast
An advancing Pacific system will begin impacting the south coast ranges Monday morning with wet snow and rain throughout the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain, accumulation 5-15 mm, 50-70 km/h westerly winds, low treeline temperature +4 C with freezing level at 2200 m.
MONDAY: Rain, accumulation 5-10 mm, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +3 C with freezing level going down to 1700 m.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with isolated showers, accumulation 1-3 mm, 10-20 km/h northerly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level at 1300 m.
WEDNESDAY: Rain, accumulation 5-10 mm, 40-60 km/h southwesterly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level at 1300 m.
Avalanche Summary
The heavy rain and warm temperatures likely triggered a natural avalanche cycle at all elevations in steep terrain with intense rainfall. Other areas saw relatively little activity, as the rain drastically reduced the snowpack depth.Â
Observations are limited following this storm, if you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to at least 2100 m, forming a surface crust as temperatures cool the wet snow. Below this crust, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts (observed up to 1650 m) are now breaking down.
The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
- As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.