Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 28th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada ahanna, Avalanche Canada

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The danger rating reflects snowfall forecast for the Coquihalla area. Elsewhere, avalanche danger may be a step (or two) lower. Make observations and assess conditions as you travel.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Snow, 5-10 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday: Snow, 5-10 cm, 20-30 cm for the Coquihalla, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 1600 m.

Wednesday: Snow, 5-10 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000-1500 m.

Thursday: Clearing, light wind, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000-1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, natural loose wet avalanche activity was observed size 1-2 at low elevations throughout the region. In the Pemberton Valley, storm slabs size 1-2 were observed initiating at 1600 m and running 1000 m, entraining wet snow. In the Duffey Lake area, a natural size 1.5 wind slab triggered by a cornice failure was observed on a NW aspect in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow continues to accumulate over a variety of surfaces including surface hoar and/or facets in shady, wind sheltered areas, sun crust on solar aspects and hard wind slab in the alpine.

  • In the south of the region, another 20-40 cm through the day Tuesday will bring storm totals to 40-60 cm in the Coquihalla and 50-70 cm latitudes near Allison Pass. 
  • In the north of the region, 10-15 cm by the end of the day Tuesday will bring storm totals to 20-40 cm. 

A crust that formed in mid-February is now down around 30-50 cm in the north and 70-90 cm in the south. Recent snowpack tests have shown resistant planar results on this layer in the Duffey Lake area. Another crust/facet layer from late-January is buried down 40-120cm and has shown no results in recent snowpack tests.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will continue to develop throughout the day at elevations where precipitation falls as snow. Widespread natural avalanche activity is expected with heavy snowfall in the south of the region.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely as rain soaks the snowpack below 1500 m.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Valid until: Mar 1st, 2022 4:00PM