Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Significant uncertainty exists with the formation of the weather-making lows in Alberta and Montana. Precipitation totals of 5mm for Sunday are most likely, but 10mm + could be possible as well. SUNDAY: Cloudy in the morning; light snowfall late in the day (accumulation 5 to 10 cm). Light northerly winds. Alpine temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1400 m.MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate westerly winds. Alpine temperature +1 C. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Light westerly winds. Alpine temperature +2 C. Freezing level 1700 m.

Many wet loose and dry loose avalanches to size 1.5 were reported on sunny aspects on Friday. Isolated natural storm slab activity to size 2 was also noted on east facing fan features, likely running during Thursday's storm. See this MIN post for more information.

Around 20 to 30 mm of water equivalent fell in the region on Thursday into Friday. This would have fallen as snow at higher elevations (up to 25 cm of snow) and partially as rain at low elevations. This precipitation fell on a thick melt-freeze crust that exists on all aspects from recent warm temperatures and rain, except for possibly higher elevations on north aspects. Sunny conditions on Friday (and some locations on Saturday as well) created moist surface snow on sunny aspects, which froze to form a 2-5 cm thick crust overnight. A weak layer of surface hoar buried mid-February exists in parts of the region around 50 to 80 cm deep. The lower snowpack is weak with a combination of crusts and facets near the bottom of the snowpack that are widespread.