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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2018–Feb 14th, 2018
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Confidence

High - High, well aligned weather models.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Slip and fall hazard will persist. New snow is expected to form wind slab on all north aspects. Manage terrain to avoid features such as convex rolls, terrain traps such as cliffs, and other areas with significant wind loading.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanches observed or reported.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar can be found on isolated features protected from both the wind and sun. A robust melt freeze crust up-to thirty cm in thickness can be found on all aspects and observed to 1800 m. This melt freeze crust is bridging or capping the snow pack and provides a reliable indicator of current snow pack stability. During daytime warming, this crust began to slightly break down with moist surface conditions reported on direct solar aspects only. Mid and lower snow pack continues to density and is well settled.

Snowpack Details

Surface:

surface hoar on isolated protected areas. Upper: 20-30 cm melt freeze crust. Mid: well settled. Lower: well settled.

Past Weather

Cool and clear conditions have continued to settle and strengthen the snow pack. Reports indicate small surface hoar located in isolated areas protected from both the sun and wind have been observed. Melt freeze crust can be found to 1800 meters and is suspect to have reached above this elevation.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will continue to deliver conditions that remain cool and clear with light to moderate north west wind. Late Tuesday a moderately strong low pressure will deliver up-to 10 cm of new snow with light to moderate south west wind.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

South west wind and new snow beginning Tuesday evening will promote the formation of wind slab. Found in both the alpine and tree line, these slabs will be located on north aspects. Initially the new snow will come in cold, however near storms end, the temperatures will rise slightly encouraging the slab to densify becoming touchy to triggering from skier traffic. Expect these avalanches to have the potential to be large , size two.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2