Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Esplanade, Goat, Gold, Jordan, Kokanee, North Columbia, North Okanagan, North Selkirk, Retallack, Shuswap, South Columbia, Valhalla, Whatshan.
6 AM Update: Wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger, don't commit to a steep slope if the snow looks wind affected or feels dense or stiff. Avoid exposure to overhead hazards like cornices and steep sun-exposed slopes that may become weak during the warmth of the day.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Natural and human-triggered wind slabs continue throughout the region.
Sporadic avalanche activity continues on persistent weak layers buried in January. These avalanches continue to remind us that these layers are taking time to heal and continue to require diligence.
Going forward wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger but still require some time to bond to previous surfaces. Clear skies and relatively mild weather may weaken cornices and increase the likelihood of avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Use caution as the day warms up.
Snowpack Summary
Recent snow has been redistributed into wind slabs directly lee of ridges at treeline and alpine elevations. The most recent snow is generally bonding to previous surfaces of old wind slabs and soft snow in sheltered terrain.
Two layers of surface hoar which formed in early January are now roughly 80 to 140 cm deep. Although snowpack tests are indicating strengthening here, these weak layers are still being watched closely by local operators.
Large and weak facets from November are near the base of the snowpack and although avalanche activity on this basal weakness has been on a bit of a decline, it still figures prominently in the assessments and terrain use (and avoidance) of professionals throughout the region.
Weather Summary
Tuesday night
Mostly clear, trace accumulations, 5 to 10 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures-10 °C
Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud, 5 to 10 km/h west winds, treeline temperatures around -10 °C.
Thursday
Mainly cloudy, 5 to 10 km/h southwest winds, flurries beginning in the evening, 2 to 5 cm new snow, treeline temperatures -7 °C.
Friday
Mainly cloudy, flurries 5 to 10 cm of new snow, 20 to 30 km/h winds, treeline temperatures -8 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
- Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs continue to be reactive to human triggers, this problem is found at upper elevations directly lee of ridges.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of large and weak facets sits near the base of the snowpack. This layer continues on a sporadic basis to produce very large avalanches that can travel far. Riders are most likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer in steep, shallow terrain, or by triggering a smaller avalanche that could step down to this layer. Sunny skies could weaken cornices, which could trigger this layer. Your best defense is to stay diligent in choosing low-consequence terrain away from overhead exposure.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 4
Persistent Slabs
Numerous problematic weak layers exist in the top meter of the snowpack. Recent large persistent slab avalanche observations are strong evidence that these layers are still an active concern in this region. Recent avalanches have been triggered by a mix of large loads like cornices but also remote triggers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3