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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2015–Jan 4th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

If Sunday's winds are stronger than forecast, the Avalanche Danger in the alpine may rise to Considerable. Watch for blowing snow at high elevations.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

On Sunday we can expect very light flurries, moderate northwesterly ridgetop winds, and alpine temperatures of about -18.  Light snowfall is expected by Sunday night, and should continue until Tuesday as a pacific frontal system pushes eastward. With this system, we can expect strong westerly winds with freezing levels staying at valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, although I suspect there was some wind slab activity in response to Friday's wind event.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are variable with northerly, wind exposed aspects showing firm wind pressing, or a scoured exposed crust. More sheltered locations have up to 30 cm of low density, faceted snow. In the alpine and at treeline, strong northerly winds have transported this snow into stiff wind slabs on opposite slopes. Up to 70 cm below the surface you will likely find a hard, thick crust which formed mid-December. At higher elevations this crust has facets (sugary) snow above it and well-preserved surface hoar up to 10 mm in size in sheltered locations at treeline and below. Where the crust exists, it may be bridging triggers from penetrating to deeper persistent weaknesses. However, on high alpine slopes above where the rain crust formed, or in areas where rain didn't occur, deeply buried facets may still be susceptible to triggering, especially in thinner snowpack areas.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Between 15 and 30 cm of low-density snow has been transported by strong swirling winds into hard wind slabs. Initially winds blew from the northwest, but then switched to the southeast, which means wind slabs may be found on a variety of aspects.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A crust which formed in December should remain on your radar as it has recently produced large avalanches in the south of the region.  Dig down and test weak layers before committing to a line.
Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.>Stick to well supported terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5