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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2017–Jan 6th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Be cautious in areas with thin snowpacks, especially shallow rocky spots. Please submit your observations to the MIN.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

We're beginning to see a shift from the very cold conditions of late with daytime temperatures warming up by 5-10 degrees Celcius.  Only some isolated flurries possible until late Sunday when a small amount of snow may fall (5-10 cms).FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods. Wind becoming southwesterly 15-25 Km/h. High temperatures near -14 and lows to -28 Celcius overnight. Small chance of isolated flurries. SATURDAY: Sunny breaks with increasing clouds late in the day. Slight chance of flurries. Winds light easterly 5-10 Km/h. High temperatures near -12 and lows to -22 Celcius.SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Wind light and variable. Temperatures between -14and -24 Celcius. 5-10 cms light dry snow possible overnight.

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow has been transported by northeast winds into wind slabs on south and west aspects. In some areas these wind slabs may be sitting on an old scoured surface that was stripped by previous strong westerly winds that developed wind slabs on north and east aspects. The newer wind slabs are probably easier to trigger, but the old wind slabs may continue to release with the added load of a rider, especially where they are sitting on a shallow weak sugary base.The mid snowpack is generally right side up, with the mid-December interface down 40-80cms, giving inconsistent results in snowpack tests. There is some faceting below this interface but resistances are good and showing signs of rounding (stabilizing).Travel conditions have been challenging (especially at lower elevations) and little change is expected until the next warm up helps to settle the snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent strong winds have been from several directions, creating wind slabs and reverse loading. Expect these wind slabs to continue to be easy to trigger, and may take longer than usual to settle and bond due to the cold temperatures
Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow, there is the potential to trigger large, dangerous avalanches. Dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steep slope.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Danger spots are where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow below.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3