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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 21st, 2015–Nov 22nd, 2015
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Cariboos.

Given the very limited information on hand for this bulletin, I would travel cautiously this weekend and take the time to gather snowpack information as I go. As always, we would love for you to submit any observations from your day to the MIN.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

An advancing cold from the North brings cooler temperatures accompanied by isolated flurries on Sunday with moderate snowfall forecast for Monday. Sunday: Mainly clear, freezing levels falling to the valley floor and light flurries throughout the day. Monday: 5 to10 cm of snow with westerly wind, a high of -10 in the alpine. Tuesday: 5 to 10 cm of snow, westerly wind, a high of -15 in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

I’m working with limited observations but there haven’t been any reports of avalanche activity.  However, the avalanche cycle that occurred during and immediately after the storm earlier in the week produced some large deep avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50cm of new snow fell in the last week. Below this new snow were dealing with a complex snowpack. Changes in wind, freezing levels and snowfall amounts mean that conditions could be dramatically different depending on aspect and elevation. Layers of buried surface hoar or crusts may be found depending on where you dig. It would be wise to test these layers before committing to a slope. At higher elevations in the alpine, facets may be found above the ground, especially on north aspects. Remember that although it's starting to look like winter, its still a young snowpack. Rocks and stumps may be lurking unseen just below the surface. Ride with care!

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Westerly wind will have redistributed the low density storm snow from earlier in the week, forming soft windslabs. I suspect that the snow in lee features will be quite reactive. Look for shooting cracks as a sign you are entering a wind loaded area.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A variety of buried persistent weak layers have been reported from across the region including surface hoar and crusts. Although it is starting to look like winter at upper elevations we're still dealing with a young snowpack.
Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are lurking on or just under the surface>Now is a good time to dig a snow profile (or two) and figure out how the snowpack changes with aspect and elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4