Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 21st, 2015 8:02AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada esharp, Avalanche Canada

Given the very limited information on hand for this bulletin, I would travel cautiously this weekend and take the time to gather snowpack information as I go. As always, we would love for you to submit any observations from your day to the MIN.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

An advancing cold from the North brings cooler temperatures accompanied by isolated flurries on Sunday with moderate snowfall forecast for Monday. Sunday: Mainly clear, freezing levels falling to the valley floor and light flurries throughout the day. Monday: 5 to10 cm of snow with westerly wind, a high of -10 in the alpine. Tuesday: 5 to 10 cm of snow, westerly wind, a high of -15 in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

I’m working with limited observations but there haven’t been any reports of avalanche activity.  However, the avalanche cycle that occurred during and immediately after the storm earlier in the week produced some large deep avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50cm of new snow fell in the last week. Below this new snow were dealing with a complex snowpack. Changes in wind, freezing levels and snowfall amounts mean that conditions could be dramatically different depending on aspect and elevation. Layers of buried surface hoar or crusts may be found depending on where you dig. It would be wise to test these layers before committing to a slope. At higher elevations in the alpine, facets may be found above the ground, especially on north aspects. Remember that although it's starting to look like winter, its still a young snowpack. Rocks and stumps may be lurking unseen just below the surface. Ride with care!

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Westerly wind will have redistributed the low density storm snow from earlier in the week, forming soft windslabs. I suspect that the snow in lee features will be quite reactive. Look for shooting cracks as a sign you are entering a wind loaded area.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
A variety of buried persistent weak layers have been reported from across the region including surface hoar and crusts. Although it is starting to look like winter at upper elevations we're still dealing with a young snowpack.
Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are lurking on or just under the surface>Now is a good time to dig a snow profile (or two) and figure out how the snowpack changes with aspect and elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Nov 22nd, 2015 2:00PM