Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Overnight and Wednesday: A strong frontal system is expected to move into the region from the Northwest during the day and bring 15-20 cm by evening. Strong West-Northwest winds are expected during the storm and the temperature should rise, but the freezing level should remain at valley bottom.Thursday: Continued moderate precipitation bringing another 10-15 cm. Temperatures continue to rise slightly and moderate Westerly winds continue.Friday: Light precipitation and moderate Northwesterly winds.

Expect increased sluffing of dry surface snow and near surface facets before the new storm snow arrives. The new storm snow may become easy to trigger where it is sitting on buried surface hoar and/or wind crusts.

A new storm is forecast to add moderate new snow amounts above the dry cold surface snow that recently buried the very cold and facetted snow that was on the surface during the arctic outbreak. There is a great deal of variation in the snowpack with respect to elevation and exposure to winds. Shallow snowpack areas may be weak and facetted, and may not support the additional load of storm snow. The old storm snow (~30-50cm) overlies the late-November interface which typically consists of sun crusts on steep south facing slopes and surface hoar in sheltered areas. These weak layers are expected to be persistent, although in many areas the upper slab is not yet stiff enough for slab avalanches. When temperatures rise, and we get additional snow, expect this interface to become more reactive.