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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 29th, 2016–Mar 1st, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Touchy and growing storm slabs will keep avalanche danger elevated this week. Riding should be great, but a conservative approach is recommended. Stick to simple terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Periods of snow 5-15 cm. The freezing level is near 1200-1400 m and winds are moderate to strong from the SW. Wednesday: 10 cm of snow should accumulate before tapering off late in the day. The freezing level is near 1200-1400 m and ridge winds ease from moderate W-NW to light. Thursday: Periods of snow. The freezing level remains near 1400 m and wind increase to moderate from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Sunday, but visibility was obscured in most places. It's likely that the region saw similar activity to neighbouring regions. Fresh storm slabs are probably touchy, particularly in wind-loaded and unsupported terrain. The storm slab problem will increase with continued snowfall and wind throughout the week.

Snowpack Summary

25-40 cm of new storm snow sits on a crust on solar aspects and lower elevation terrain, and surface hoar on shady and sheltered slopes. A couple sun crusts might exist in the top 50 cm on southerly aspects. New wind slabs will continue to develop with forecast snowfall and moderate southwest winds in the alpine. The surface hoar and/or crust layer which was buried February 10 is now down 70-100cm but triggering this layer has become unlikely. Large cornices have recently been a concern but should also gain strength will colder temperatures.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm slabs overlying a crust and/or recently buried surface hoar layer are developing. Triggering is more likely in steep lee and cross-loaded terrain (N-SE aspects).
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4