Avalanche forecast

Aspiring

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 weeks ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Saturday should be a day to be extra careful and conservative with your plans

50-60 cm of new snow has just fallen across the region. Combined with strong southerlies, wind slab will be likely and potentially large in some areas.

Careful planning and terrain assessment are essential

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5

    Wind slabs are likely, could be touchy, and may be large due to the recent heavy snowfall and wind transport over the past 48 hours.

    Strong to gale southerly winds and 50- 60 cm of recent storm snow mean new wind slabs could easily be over 100cm in depth.

    As winds shifted over the past 48 hours, these wind slabs may be encountered on west, north and east facing aspects under ridge lines, steep roll overs and other terrain features.

    Ongoing wind transport may continue at least through the first part of the day.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No recent reports before this current storm. A natural cycle of wind slab avalanches has probably run during the storm cycle on northeast to southwest aspects.

If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Until early afternoon on Thursday 20-30cm of new snow may have fallen above around 1800m. A further 30-40cm may have fallen after this to as low as 1200m as temperatures dropped on Thursday afternoon. Winds were strong to gale from the northwest over Thursday and changed to gale southerly on Friday afternoon.

Previously the snowpack was still shallow, approximately 60- 70 cm below 1700m and 120cm at 2000m. Crevasses are still very open, and many rock features are still visible, particularly on west-facing aspects. Recent storm and wind transported snow from last week appears to have settled and bonded well in most areas around the region with no significant reports of instability. Although the pack appears consolidated, the Aspiring region is very large, and there is still limited data. Caution should still be taken, particularly in steeper, more extreme terrain where unknown weaknesses may exist.

Mountain Weather

Mt Aspiring National Park Forecast

Forecast for Saturday

Fine, but becoming mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening. Snow to 900 metres at night.

Wind at 1000 metres Southeasterlies 30 km/h, dying out in the morning.

Wind at 2000 metres Southeasterlies 40 km/h, turning to southwesterly 45 km/h in the morning.

Wind at 3000 metres Southerlies 60 km/h, easing to 40 km/h in the morning.

Freezing level 400 metres, lifting to 1100 metres in the morning.

Issued: 1:13pm Fri 31 Jul

Sliding Danger

West aspects may have been stripped back to old ice layers over the past 24 hours. Depending on your objective, an ice axe and crampons could be necessary.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered