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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2021–Mar 5th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

The warm temperatures and strong solar effect will continue to weaken the snowpack.

A Special Avalanche Warning is in effect immediately, through Saturday.

Weather Forecast

Friday: Cloudy with scattered flurries (4cm); alpine: High -2 °C; ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h; freezing level: 2000m.

Saturday: Flurries (9cm); alpine: Low -9 °C, High -4 °C; light ridge wind; freezing level: 1500m.

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods; alpine: Low -13 °C, High -8 °C; ridge wind southwest: 10-30 km/h; freezing level: valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperature have resulted in warm moist conditions at TL and BTL. The snowpack is highly variable throughout the forecast region. A moist upper snowpack overlies a supportive mid-pack in the Icefields area. Shallow snowpack areas are week and failing in test results.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet and slab avalanches on solar aspects up to size 2, mostly at TL and BTL throughout the forecast region.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.