Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 10th, 2015–Mar 11th, 2015

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Forecast new snow is expected to continue to develop storm slabs. Pockets of wind transported snow may deep and sensitive to human triggers.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Cloud developing overnight with freezing levels dropping down to about 1400 metres. Light precipitation (about 5 mm total) starting in the early morning combined with moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels rising up to about 1700 metres during the day. Light precipitation overnight and Thursday morning resulting in 5-10 cm of new snow above about 1600 metres. Friday is expected to be very warm with clearing skies as the high pressure ridge re-builds.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Poor visibility due to rain and fog limited travel on Monday. I suspect that new storm slabs developed in the alpine, and rain may have resulted in loose wet releases below 2000 metres.

Snowpack Summary

The north of the region received up to 30 cm of new snow in the alpine and rain below about 2000 metres. The south of the region had closer to 5 cm in the alpine with a freezing level around 2000 metres. Strong westerly winds transported new snow into deep windlabs. This new storm snow is sitting above loose facetted snow and a melt-freeze crust that was buried in mid-February. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (up to 100 cm deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (80-120 cm deep) are generally dormant, and chances of triggering these weaknesses have decreased.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast new snow is expected to continue to develop new storm slabs. Long fracture propagations and remote triggering may be possible where storm slabs are sitting above facets and crusts that were buried in mid-February.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Warm temperatures and rain at lower elevations may result in loose wet avalanches from steep terrain.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3