Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 10th, 2012 11:03AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wet Slabs and Cornices.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: increased cloud with light precipitation developing in the late afternoon becoming moderate in some areas overnight / light to moderate southerly winds / freezing level at 2500m Thursday: light precipitation / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m Friday: mostly cloudy skies with trace amounts of precipitation / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a very large (size 3) naturally-triggered avalanche was reported on an east aspect at 2700 m that initiated on the late March crust and then stepped down to glacier ice. There have also been numerous loose snow avalanches running on steep solar aspects to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Melt-freeze conditions exist to about 2100m on all aspects and to ridge top on solar aspects. On shaded aspects higher up, 60 cm of recent storm snow is reported to be generally settling well with recent warm temperatures and generally light winds. However, operators are still reporting moderate, "resistant" shears within the recent storm snow. Additionally, a crust that formed near the end of March is a concern, particularly on steep, solar aspects. With prolonged warming, there is the possibility for wet slabs to release on this layer, or potentially on deeper layers (including the ground), as melt water starts to percolate through the snowpack. Cornices are large in some areas and drooping with recent warm temperatures.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches are likely on sun exposed slopes during the day. It's possible that loose slides could initiate something deeper in the snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Wet Slabs

Wet slabs become more likely during periods of prolonged warm temperatures and/or sunshine.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 6

Cornices

Large cornices exist in alpine terrain and they may pop off with warmer temperatures and intense solar radiation. A failure could be destructive by itself, and could also trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Apr 11th, 2012 9:00AM