Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Nov 30th, 2014 8:38AM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeA deeply buried weak layer means human-triggered avalanches will persist. Conservative decision making remains critical.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
A weak disturbance will bring increased cloud and light flurries for Monday and early Tuesday. Clear, dry conditions should return for afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday.Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, light flurries 0-2cm, treeline temperature around -20, light-moderate W alpine wind.Tuesday: Some clouds in the morning, clearing during the day, light flurries 0-2cm, treeline temperature around -15, strong NW alpine wind.Wednesday: Sunny, treeline temperature around -15, light-moderate W alpine wind.
Avalanche Summary
We haven't had any new reports in the last week. If you have any observations, please send them to forecaster@avalanche.ca. Recent observations from the Rogers Pass area where the conditions are expected to be similar include widespread natural activity up to size 3.5 on Thursday and Friday. A natural size 3 was also reported on Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
The storm produced a slab up to 1 m thick which sits on the mid-November weak layer (facets, surface hoar, and/or a sun crust on steep southerly slopes). 20-30cm below this layer is a thick rain crust with weak facets on top. Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. Snowpack tests on Sunday in Rogers Pass suggest the layers can still be human triggered, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches. Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution in the alpine.
Problems
Storm Slabs
A slab up to 1m thick sits on a weak layer and is producing large avalanches. Strong alpine winds have loaded leeward features in exposed terrain creating wind slabs.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 1st, 2014 2:00PM