Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

A weak disturbance will bring increased cloud and light flurries for Monday and early Tuesday. Clear, dry conditions should return for afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday.Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, light flurries 0-2cm, treeline temperature around -20, light-moderate W alpine wind.Tuesday: Some clouds in the morning, clearing during the day, light flurries 0-2cm, treeline temperature around -15, strong NW alpine wind.Wednesday: Sunny, treeline temperature around -15, light-moderate W alpine wind.

We haven't had any new reports in the last week. If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected]. Recent observations from the Rogers Pass area where the conditions are expected to be similar include widespread natural activity up to size 3.5 on Thursday and Friday. A natural size 3 was also reported on Saturday.

The storm produced a slab up to 1 m thick which sits on the mid-November weak layer (facets, surface hoar, and/or a sun crust on steep southerly slopes). 20-30cm below this layer is a thick rain crust with weak facets on top. Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. Snowpack tests on Sunday in Rogers Pass suggest the layers can still be human triggered, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches.  Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution in the alpine.